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US Presidential Election: Trump vs Biden

1 November 2020. Is Joe Biden, the favored candidate of the Democratic Party, going to win or is there going to be another surprise and republican Donald Trump defends the presidential mandate? What do bookmakers think?

What Bookmaker Think

The US presidential election 2020 is just around the corner – it's scheduled for Tuesday 3 November 2020. Let's have a look at the odds bookmakers set. They, quite strongly, favor the challenger Joe Biden with the odds about 1.58:1. The odds for the victory of Donald Trump is around 2.28:1.

It corresponds to the probability of Biden winning about 66% against 34% for Trump. Let's add that the decimal odds times money wagered determine a potential winning amount. The lower the odds the higher the probability of winning (according to a bookmaker) and vice versa. Will bookmakers be right this time or will the history repeat itself as in the last presidential elections in 2016?

Will the History Repeat Itself?

One year before the last US presidential elections in 2016, that is sometime in October 2015, there had been very high decimal odds of 12 for the victory of Donald Trump, which declined gradually to the odds of 4.5 in November 2016. It meant that bookmakers considered him to be much greater outsider against Hillary Clinton than this time against Joe Biden. Despite that he prevailed.

There were many extraordinary surprising events in 2016 (at least for somebody). Apart from the victory of Donald Trump in US presidential elections 2016 it was e.g. Brexit or Leicester City winning the highest UK football (or soccer if you like) competition the Premier League, while before the start of the season the odds of Leicester City winning the title was 5,000:1.